Процесс анализа угроз, влияющих на экономическую устойчивость предприятия

На основании проведенного исследования были выявлены факторы возникновения угроз, их группировка по степени воздействию на экономическую устойчивость предприятий и рассмотрена формализация процесса анализа угроз экономической устойчивости предприятий. В условиях рыночной экономики невозможно управлять предприятием без учета влияния угроз, а для эффективного управления важно не только знать об их присутствии, а и правильно идентифицировать конкретную угрозу.На підставі проведеного дослідження були виявлені чинники виникнення загроз, їх угруповання по степені впливу на економічну стійкість підприємств і розглянута формалізація процесу аналізу загроз економічної стійкості підприємств. В умовах ринкової економіки неможливо керувати підприємством без вивчення впливу загроз, а для ефективного керування важливо не тільки знати про їх присутність, а і правильно ідентифікувати конкретну загрозу.On the basis of the conducted research the factors of origin of threats were exposed, their gourmet on a degree to influence on economic stability of enterprises and formalization of process of analysis of threats of economic stability of enterprises is considered. In the conditions of market economy it is impossible to manage an enterprise without taking into account influencing of threats, and for the effective management it is important not only to know about their presence, and to identify the concrete threat correctly

Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics: insights into the future of swine flu (H1N1)

Here we present a review of the literature of influenza modeling studies, and discuss how these models can provide insights into the future of the currently circulating novel strain of influenza A (H1N1), formerly known as swine flu. We discuss how the feasibility of controlling an epidemic critically depends on the value of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0). The R0 for novel influenza A (H1N1) has recently been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6. This value is below values of R0 estimated for the 1918–1919 pandemic strain (mean R0~2: range 1.4 to 2.8) and is comparable to R0 values estimated for seasonal strains of influenza (mean R0 1.3: range 0.9 to 2.1). By reviewing results from previous modeling studies we conclude it is theoretically possible that a pandemic of H1N1 could be contained. However it may not be feasible, even in resource-rich countries, to achieve the necessary levels of vaccination and treatment for control. As a recent modeling study has shown, a global cooperative strategy will be essential in order to control a pandemic. This strategy will require resource-rich countries to share their vaccines and antivirals with resource-constrained and resource-poor countries. We conclude our review by discussing the necessity of developing new biologically complex models. We suggest that these models should simultaneously track the transmission dynamics of multiple strains of influenza in bird, pig and human populations. Such models could be critical for identifying effective new interventions, and informing pandemic preparedness planning. Finally, we show that by modeling cross-species transmission it may be possible to predict the emergence of pandemic strains of influenza

Knowledge transfer in Tehran University of Medical Sciences: an academic example of a developing country

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the past two decades, scientific publications in Iran have considerably increased their medical science content, and the number of articles published in ISI journals has doubled between 1997 and 2001. The aim of the present study was to determine how frequently knowledge transfer strategies were applied in Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS). We were also interested in studying the determining factors leading to the type of strategy selected.</p> <p>Methodology</p> <p>All TUMS research projects that had received grants from inside and outside the university in 2004, and were completed by the end of 2006, were included in the study. In total, 301 projects were examined, and data on each of the projects were collected by the research team using a standardized questionnaire. The projects' principle investigators filled out a second questionnaire. In all, 208 questionnaires were collected.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Researchers stated being more engaged in the passive strategies of knowledge transfer, especially those publishing in peer-reviewed journals. The mean score for the researchers' performance in passive and active strategies were 22% and 9% of the total score, respectively. Linear regression analysis showed that the passive strategy score decreased with the increase in the number of years working as a professional (p = 0.01) and personal interest as the only reason for choosing the research topic (p = 0.01). Regarding the active strategies of knowledge transfer, health system research studies significantly raised the score (p = 0.02) and 'executive responsibility' significantly lowered it (p = 0.03).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>As a study carried out in a Middle Eastern developing country, we see that, like many other universities in the world, many academicians still do not give priority to active strategies of knowledge transfer. Therefore, if 'linking knowledge to action' is necessary, it may also be necessary to introduce considerable changes in academic procedures and encouragement policies (<it>e.g.</it>, employment and promotion criteria of academic members).</p

Knowledge transfer in Tehran University of Medical Sciences: an academic example of a developing country

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the past two decades, scientific publications in Iran have considerably increased their medical science content, and the number of articles published in ISI journals has doubled between 1997 and 2001. The aim of the present study was to determine how frequently knowledge transfer strategies were applied in Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS). We were also interested in studying the determining factors leading to the type of strategy selected.</p> <p>Methodology</p> <p>All TUMS research projects that had received grants from inside and outside the university in 2004, and were completed by the end of 2006, were included in the study. In total, 301 projects were examined, and data on each of the projects were collected by the research team using a standardized questionnaire. The projects' principle investigators filled out a second questionnaire. In all, 208 questionnaires were collected.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Researchers stated being more engaged in the passive strategies of knowledge transfer, especially those publishing in peer-reviewed journals. The mean score for the researchers' performance in passive and active strategies were 22% and 9% of the total score, respectively. Linear regression analysis showed that the passive strategy score decreased with the increase in the number of years working as a professional (p = 0.01) and personal interest as the only reason for choosing the research topic (p = 0.01). Regarding the active strategies of knowledge transfer, health system research studies significantly raised the score (p = 0.02) and 'executive responsibility' significantly lowered it (p = 0.03).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>As a study carried out in a Middle Eastern developing country, we see that, like many other universities in the world, many academicians still do not give priority to active strategies of knowledge transfer. Therefore, if 'linking knowledge to action' is necessary, it may also be necessary to introduce considerable changes in academic procedures and encouragement policies (<it>e.g.</it>, employment and promotion criteria of academic members).</p

The Transformation of Teaching Habits in Relation to the Introduction of Grading and National Testing in Science Education in Sweden

In Sweden, a new curriculum and new methods of assessment (grading of students and national tests) in science education were introduced in grade 6 in 2012/2013. We have investigated what implications these reforms have for teachers’ teaching and assessment practices in order to explore the question of how teachers transform their teaching habits in relation to policy reforms. Interviews with 16 teachers teaching science in grade 6 (Y6), over 3 years after the reforms were introduced, were analysed. Building on the ideas of John Dewey, we consider teachers’ talk about their everyday practice as expressions of their habits of teaching. Habits of teaching are related both to individual experiences as well as institutional traditions in and about teaching. A categorisation of educational philosophies was used to teachers’ habits of teaching to a collective level and to show how habits can be transformed and developed over time in specific sociocultural contexts. The teachers were categorised as using essentialist and/or progressivist educational philosophy. In the responses to the introduction of grading and national testing, the teachers took three approaches: Their habits being reinforced, revised or unchanged in relation to the reforms. Although the responses were different, a striking similarity was that all teachers justified their responses with wanting to do what is best for students. However, how to show care for students differed, from delivering scientific knowledge in alignment with an essentialist educational philosophy, to preparing students to do well on tests, to supporting their development as individuals, which is in alignment with a progressivist educational philosophy

Targeting Cattle-Borne Zoonoses and Cattle Pathogens Using a Novel Trypanosomatid-Based Delivery System

Trypanosomatid parasites are notorious for the human diseases they cause throughout Africa and South America. However, non-pathogenic trypanosomatids are also found worldwide, infecting a wide range of hosts. One example is Trypanosoma (Megatrypanum) theileri, a ubiquitous protozoan commensal of bovids, which is distributed globally. Exploiting knowledge of pathogenic trypanosomatids, we have developed Trypanosoma theileri as a novel vehicle to deliver vaccine antigens and other proteins to cattle. Conditions for the growth and transfection of T. theileri have been optimised and expressed heterologous proteins targeted for secretion or specific localisation at the cell interior or surface using trafficking signals from Trypanosoma brucei. In cattle, the engineered vehicle could establish in the context of a pre-existing natural T. theileri population, was maintained long-term and generated specific immune responses to an expressed Babesia antigen at protective levels. Building on several decades of basic research into trypanosomatid pathogens, Trypanosoma theileri offers significant potential to target multiple infections, including major cattle-borne zoonoses such as Escherichia coli, Salmonella spp., Brucella abortus and Mycobacterium spp. It also has the potential to deliver therapeutics to cattle, including the lytic factor that protects humans from cattle trypanosomiasis. This could alleviate poverty by protecting indigenous African cattle from African trypanosomiasis

Technology-supported learning innovation in cultural contexts

Many reform initiatives adopt a reductionist, proceduralized approach to cultural change, assuming that deep changes can be realized by introducing new classroom activities, textbooks, and technological tools. This article elaborates a complex system perspective of learning culture: A learning culture as a complex system involves macro-level properties (e.g., epistemological beliefs, social values, power structures) and micro-level features (e.g., technology, classroom activities). Deep changes in macro-level properties cannot be reduced to any component. This complex system perspective is applied to examining technology-supported educational change in East Asia and analyzing how teachers sustain the knowledge building innovation in different contexts. Working with the macro-micro dynamics in a learning culture requires a principle-based approach to learning innovation that specifies macro-level changes using principle-based instead of procedure-based terms and engages teachers’ deep reflection and creative engagement at both the macro- and the micro-level

How to Minimize the Attack Rate during Multiple Influenza Outbreaks in a Heterogeneous Population

<div><h3>Background</h3><p>If repeated interventions against multiple outbreaks are not feasible, there is an optimal level of control during the first outbreak. Any control measures above that optimal level will lead to an outcome that may be as sub-optimal as that achieved by an intervention that is too weak. We studied this scenario in more detail.</p> <h3>Method</h3><p>An age-stratified ordinary-differential-equation model was constructed to study infectious disease outbreaks and control in a population made up of two groups, adults and children. The model was parameterized using influenza as an example. This model was used to simulate two consecutive outbreaks of the same infectious disease, with an intervention applied only during the first outbreak, and to study how cumulative attack rates were influenced by population composition, strength of inter-group transmission, and different ways of triggering and implementing the interventions. We assumed that recovered individuals are fully immune and the intervention does not confer immunity.</p> <h3>Results/Conclusion</h3><p>The optimal intervention depended on coupling between the two population sub-groups, the length, strength and timing of the intervention, and the population composition. Population heterogeneity affected intervention strategies only for very low cross-transmission between groups. At more realistic values, coupling between the groups led to synchronization of outbreaks and therefore intervention strategies that were optimal in reducing the attack rates for each subgroup and the population overall coincided. For a sustained intervention of low efficacy, early intervention was found to be best, while at high efficacies, a delayed start was better. For short interventions, a delayed start was always advantageous, independent of the intervention efficacy. For most scenarios, starting the intervention after a certain cumulative proportion of children were infected seemed more robust in achieving close to optimal outcomes compared to a strategy that used a specified duration after an outbreak’s beginning as the trigger.</p> </div

Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: Agent-based versus structured metapopulation models

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In recent years large-scale computational models for the realistic simulation of epidemic outbreaks have been used with increased frequency. Methodologies adapt to the scale of interest and range from very detailed agent-based models to spatially-structured metapopulation models. One major issue thus concerns to what extent the geotemporal spreading pattern found by different modeling approaches may differ and depend on the different approximations and assumptions used.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We provide for the first time a side-by-side comparison of the results obtained with a stochastic agent-based model and a structured metapopulation stochastic model for the progression of a baseline pandemic event in Italy, a large and geographically heterogeneous European country. The agent-based model is based on the explicit representation of the Italian population through highly detailed data on the socio-demographic structure. The metapopulation simulations use the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model, based on high-resolution census data worldwide, and integrating airline travel flow data with short-range human mobility patterns at the global scale. The model also considers age structure data for Italy. GLEaM and the agent-based models are synchronized in their initial conditions by using the same disease parameterization, and by defining the same importation of infected cases from international travels.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results obtained show that both models provide epidemic patterns that are in very good agreement at the granularity levels accessible by both approaches, with differences in peak timing on the order of a few days. The relative difference of the epidemic size depends on the basic reproductive ratio, <it>R</it>₀, and on the fact that the metapopulation model consistently yields a larger incidence than the agent-based model, as expected due to the differences in the structure in the intra-population contact pattern of the approaches. The age breakdown analysis shows that similar attack rates are obtained for the younger age classes.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The good agreement between the two modeling approaches is very important for defining the tradeoff between data availability and the information provided by the models. The results we present define the possibility of hybrid models combining the agent-based and the metapopulation approaches according to the available data and computational resources.</p